Three predictions for 2010

Everybody likes predictions. Some like to make, even more like to listen. I think it is fun, and here's a piece of wisdom (or stupidity) from me:

1. This year's summer and winter will be more extreme than 2009's.
We are in an age of environmental changes. Scientists are telling us that human activities are causing global warming which is unbalancing the ecosystem (we listen, we agree, and then we think "whatever, there's nothing a nobody like me can do about it"). Every year's summer is hotter and drier than the previous. Which will be followed by typhoons and floods that are worse and more lethal. And then it will snow heavier than ever before. Seems to me that this is where things are heading towards. And the poor and underprivileged are always the ones who suffer the most from the resulting disasters.

2. A renewed international focus on tackling unique business challenges in China.
Everybody knows that the biggest market for at least the next twenty years is in China. No international corporation wants to be left behind in setting its foot in this new land of opportunities. However, the rules of the game is very different in China (try Googling for these rules). You either abide the rules or you forfeit your chance to grow with this market. This playground is different from the ones that western corporations are used to; and in 2010 they have come to a stage where they need to re-think their growth strategy in China.

3. All things mobile.
Mobile devices and ubiquitous computing have been hot keywords in the field of human-computer interaction since the 90's. However, we have finally and truly come to a point where mobile Internet devices are becoming ubiquitous. Factors contributing to this includes:

• advancement in electronics and manufacturing processes that lead to hardware innovation,
• advancement in data transfer protocols and bandwidth; we have broke the minimal speed barrier for truly usable Internet everywhere, and
• a shift in focus from hardware to services. iPods and the iPhone App Store are two obvious examples to show that being able to manufacture and sell mobile devices cheaper than others will not naturally bring successes. The service and experience ecosystem is what really matters.
  

The market for mobile devices that also function as e-readers will grow like the MP3 players' in the late 90's. The story may be different, but the ending is likely to be similar: only a couple of manufacturers will survive, and these are the ones who offer highly integrated content providing services. But thanks to the iPod and iPhone case studies, the importance of building the ecosystem and focusing on content services is a lot more obvious this time. Hence, compared to the MP3 players' days, there will be a lot more competition in terms of deal makings with publishers, in terms of technological innovation, and in terms of user experience and design.

And as mobile Internet devices become more ubiquitous, perhaps "smart homes" will finally begin to take off in 2011. We will soon be carrying a potential remote control to our smart homes everywhere we go.